Sumários

Stochastic SIR

15 Maio 2024, 10:00 • Alessandro Margheri

SITR in a finite population. Sate space, dynamics and deduction of the corresponding linear birth-death process. Analysis of how to organize the computantions.

deterministic SIR model: final size equation

14 Maio 2024, 11:00 • Alessandro Margheri

deterministic SIR model. Illustration of the solutions with pplane. Deduction of the final size equation

Exercises +SIR

8 Maio 2024, 10:00 • Alessandro Margheri

Exposition of homework. The SIR model: deduction of the system.

G-W: quasi steady distribution

7 Maio 2024, 11:00 • Alessandro Margheri

G-W process: quasi steady distribution in the subcritical case.

G-W processes

30 Abril 2024, 11:00 • Alessandro Margheri

G-W processes.

Summary of the previois lecture. Subcritical and critical case: rate of convergence to extinction. Supercritical case: exponential growth conditioned on non extinction.